A Mid-Season Check-In:
The 2025 Theme Park Industry and What Lies Ahead

As we approach the heart of the 2025 summer season, the theme park industry continues to demonstrate both resilience and reinvention. The first half of the year has been marked by widespread cautious optimism, bold expansions, and continued challenges brought on by economic uncertainty, global tensions, and a highly competitive domestic market. For operators, analysts, and suppliers alike, the state of the industry offers much to consider as we move deeper into the 2025 season.

All eyes this year have been on Universal’s Epic Universe, the first new major theme park to open in the United States in over two decades. The park officially opened its gates on May 22nd and has immediately taken its place as the most significant development in the sector since Disney’s Animal Kingdom debuted in 1998. I have visited and found it to be truly the classic example of a state of the art, best-in-class newly introduced theme park.

The launch was met with a flood of interest, but Universal smartly capped attendance to ensure a manageable guest experience. Early reports from the field tell a story of extremes. Opening days were surprisingly light and heat was extreme (not nearly enough shade), but crowd levels quickly grew as word-of-mouth and vacation calendars aligned. Universal has yet to confirm official attendance figures, but ground intelligence estimates daily numbers quickly climbed toward 12,000 guests, with expectations that the park will top six million visits on an annualized basis. This park is not merely a new gate - it is a direct shot across the bow at Disney’s long-held dominance in the Orlando market.

Source:  Universal Orlando Resort

While Universal is expanding, Disney continues to defend its territory. The Walt Disney Company’s domestic parks remain exceptionally strong performers. Their “Experiences Division” continues to generate robust revenue, and while some analysts point to minor slowdowns in guest spending or hotel occupancy, the parks are one of the foundations of the company’s earnings. Nonetheless, I believe competition from Epic Universe, along with an evolving consumer appetite for more immersive, story-driven experiences, will force Disney to respond. That response could very well come in the form of a fifth theme park in Orlando – a possibility Disney has publicly acknowledged but is not yet in the cards. We shall see.

The question now is not if Disney will build another park, but when—and why or why not. The strategic case is mounting, and rumors flourish. The Orlando resort is nearing capacity during peak seasons, and there is a clear opportunity to leverage untapped IP like Marvel (if legally possible), or to further expand Star Wars offerings. However, the decision is not just creative, it is capital-intensive. With cost estimates north of $9 billion and a development timeline that could easily stretch eight to ten years, Disney continues to weigh its options carefully and publicly deny a fifth Orlando park. Still, given the competitive pressure from Universal and the company’s own aggressive $60 billion investment plan over the next decade, as well as the proposed tourist Orlando growth planned over the next 10-15 years, a fifth park seems more probable than not by 2032-33.

Meanwhile, SeaWorld - now operating under the United Parks & Resorts banner - has experienced a modest softening in attendance this year. Their first quarter showed a slight dip, with around 3.39 million visits compared to 3.45 million the year before. The brand continues to evolve post-pandemic and post-restructuring, but it faces stiff competition from both major destination parks and regional players. With several new attractions opening, SeaWorld will need to continue to lean heavily into strategic marketing, pricing value alternatives, and guest experience enhancements to maintain relevance in a crowded field during the next 10 years.

Looking at the regional level, the newly merged Six Flags and Cedar Fair entity is attempting to build momentum. The combined companies reported solid performance to start the season, where weather was good, with approximately 2.8 million guests through season pass sales. This is a key barometer for regional park health. CEO Richard Zimmerman has indicated that integration efforts are going well, and the merged company is focusing on operational efficiency, with several hundred employees being terminated to run leaner and cheaper. They are hoping to make quality guest improvements and generate a huge increase in stepping up season pass growth. The strength of local attendance - especially in an era of high travel costs - should not be overlooked. Some families are looking closer to home for entertainment, and these regional parks are delivering. We are seeing early indicators that the “staycation concept” of 2007-08 is returning to 2025.

Source:  Six Flage

Of course, not everything this season has gone smoothly. Broader, uncontrollable macroeconomic conditions are casting a long shadow. The global economy continues to face inflationary pressure, and the ongoing conflict in Iran is driving oil price volatility up/down, though this is still too early to tell. This could still ripple into travel costs and consumer sentiment - too early to determine.

Tariffs also remain a wildcard as trade tensions flare globally. For parks that rely heavily on international visitation or imported goods, from plush toys to roller coasters, these conditions present new logistical and cost challenges. Parks that have built supply chain post Covid flexibility and domestic sourcing advantages may find themselves better positioned on certain COS items.

Looking forward, the rest of 2025 will be defined by two key dynamics: the continued rollout of Epic Universe and the industry’s response to shifting guest behavior. The balance of day guests versus overnight tourists, the impact of growing season passes versus the decline in daily ticket sales, along with the rise of dynamic pricing models all suggest that operators must remain nimble and data-driven - reacting immediately to customer messages. Remember their lips may say one thing but watch their feet – that’s how they really vote!

I believe what we’re seeing, in some ways, is a coming reinvention of the guest experience itself. It’s no longer just about rides being longer, higher, and faster. In the future, it’s about more seamless, story-driven environments, expanded IP integration, and guest personalization. The winners in this industry will be those who invest not only in infrastructure, such as rides, but also in broader guest insight relating to technological advancement in guest experiences and immersion styled attractions.

As we enter the second half of the 2025 season, attendance may level off in some markets, and guest spending could tighten in others. We have our fingers crossed for basically reasonable weather. At the time of this writing, going into 4th of July week, we are seeing a mixture of weather across the United States - intense heat in the southwest, heavier than usual precipitation throughout the midwest and east coast, and temperatures projected to change to above normal temperatures in the northeast and northwest throughout July. Fortunately, at this point in the “hurricane season”, we are not hearing about any major storm development as of yet. So, all things being equal, it is fair to say that where weather has been decent, attendance has been within projection ranges. The core design for high-quality themed family entertainment remains intact – and in that, our industry continues to find its true guest advantage.

Stay tuned. The story of 2025 is still being written. And keep in mind: “We work in a great industry. We don’t put smoke in the skies, and we don’t pollute the streams. We put smiles on people’s faces and make memories that last a lifetime!” What could be better than that!!

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